A model of estimating the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for retirees points to a 2.5% COLA increase for 2026.
“This figure would be equal to 2025’s COLA, signaling modest inflation in the year to come,” The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL) wrote.
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The 2025 federal retiree cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) was 2.5 percent for those under the Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) and 2.0 percent for those under the Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS).
Inflation Falling
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners (CPI-W), the government’s inflation index to calculate COLAs, came in at 2.6% for November, the second month of Q4. “[This] release continues a recent trend of falling inflation. As the CPI-W averaged 3.2% yearly inflation in Q1 and Q2 2024 before falling to an average of 2.5% in Q3, the quarter used to calculate Social Security COLAs,” TSCL wrote.
“While it’s great to see inflation cooling, that doesn’t mean seniors’ economic challenges are over, said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “Years of inadequate COLAs have left older Americans behind, and TSCL will continue fighting until Social Security offers a guaranteed minimum COLA of 3%. If the Trump administration wants a quick win with seniors, the best place to start is not just protecting Social Security but reforming it. Seniors want to see stronger COLAs that better represent their experience of inflation. They also demand financial reforms to ensure the program lasts not just through the end of their retirements, but their grandchildren’s.”
Each month, TSCL issues a new prediction of the next COLA for Social Security using our statistical model. “Our model incorporates the Consumer Price Index, the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate to make its predictions,” TSCL says.
The official 2026 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) in mid-October 2025. The SSA will calculate the percent change between average prices in the third quarter of the current year (ending on Sept. 30) with the third quarter of the previous year.