Advanced Flower Capital (Nasdaq: AFCG) is a microcap mortgage real estate investment trust, or REIT, that focuses on the cannabis industry.
The company pays a whopping 16% yield. While the debate rages on about whether marijuana is safe, let’s see if we can settle whether Advanced Flower’s dividend is safe or in danger of being cut.
Advanced Flower’s cash flow metric is called distributable earnings. In 2023, distributable earnings fell from $49.9 million to $41.4 million. However, distributable earnings for 2024 are forecast to come in at $69.3 million – a significant improvement.
That should help the payout ratio, which has been a concern in the past. In 2023, the company paid out $42.5 million in dividends for a payout ratio of 103%. That means it paid out $1.03 in dividends for every $1 in distributable earnings.
I’m OK with REITs paying out up to 100% of their cash flow in dividends, as they are required by law to pay 90% or more of their earnings to shareholders. As a result, REITs tend to have higher payout ratios than other companies. But as long as they’re not paying out more than they’re bringing in, that’s fine.
Last year, Advanced Flower’s payout ratio dropped to a more comfortable 83%.
However, I’m not so sure about the company’s prospects for 2025. Revenue and net interest income are forecast to slip a bit, while earnings per share are expected to rise slightly. So I don’t have a feel for where distributable earnings will be at the end of the year. They probably won’t grow much, and I suspect they could be lower.
Advanced Flower has paid a dividend since 2021, but in 2023, as distributable earnings fell, it lowered the dividend. The company also paid a $0.10 per share special dividend in 2024.
Given that the company may struggle to grow its distributable earnings in 2025 – and what that would mean for the payout ratio – plus the fact that it cut its dividend in the very recent past, Advanced Flower Capital’s dividend cannot be considered safe.
Dividend Safety Rating: D
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