Editor’s Note: Today’s guest column on the potential for a “business bonanza” in 2025 comes from Manward Press Chief Investment Strategist Shah Gilani.
Shah is a former hedge fund manager, a sought-after market commentator, and a renowned stock picker, and Manward is one of our most trusted Pillar One Advisors here at The Oxford Club.
To get more content from Shah and his team at Manward Press, go here to check out their e-letter, Total Wealth.
– James Ogletree, Managing Editor
Strap in, people – 2025 is the year of dealmaking!
I’m talking mergers and acquisitions, spinoffs, leveraged buyouts, private equity portfolio companies going public, IPOs…
They are all going to rage in 2025, at least as long as Donald Trump is president.
Wall Street’s top power players can’t wait to feast on these opportunities.
The profit potential is staggering… if you know where to look.
What’s driving this business bonanza?
- Lighter Regulation: The Trump administration has made no secret of its pro-business stance. Expect a rollback of many Biden-era antitrust measures that stalled high-profile mergers in tech, healthcare, and energy. Companies that were hesitant to pull the trigger on deals under tight regulatory scrutiny will now race to the negotiating table.
- Falling Interest Rates: While the Fed kept rates high through 2024 to tame inflation, the pressure to ease will be too great to ignore. Lower rates mean cheaper financing, and that’s the lifeblood of big M&A deals.
- Private Credit Boom: Traditional banks may have tightened the screws on lending in recent years. But private credit funds – backed by institutions like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR – are stepping up in a big way. With trillions in dry powder, these funds are ready to bankroll buyouts, leveraged acquisitions, and strategic mergers with minimal regulatory oversight.
- Big Banks Are All-In: While private credit is on fire, traditional banking giants aren’t sitting out. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley are increasingly underwriting deals and partnering with private lenders, creating an M&A financing machine unlike anything we’ve seen before.
As these forces converge, here’s how I see things playing out.
Let’s start with the regulatory hurdles.
As these come down, big tech will be hunting for strategic acquisitions to strengthen their AI and semiconductor capabilities. Watch for Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOGL) to aggressively acquire AI startups and data analytics firms. Chipmakers like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD) will snap up suppliers to fortify their supply chains.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) and Broadcom (AVGO) have already shown interest in owning parts of Intel (INTC).
And that’s just the start.
Big Pharma companies like Pfizer (PFE) and Merck (MRK) are targeting promising gene therapy and oncology startups and private equity holdings.
In the energy space, I expect oil and gas majors like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) to scoop up smaller producers, capitalizing on deregulation and President Trump’s drill-baby-drill mandate.
Meanwhile, industrial conglomerates will offload non-core assets while doubling down on growth sectors like automation and aerospace.
At the same time, big multi-layered corporations will break apart to take advantage of the favorable environment. These spinoffs will allow businesses to unlock hidden value, shed excess baggage, and refocus on their core strengths.
Here are some of the biggest potential plays to watch:
- DuPont’s Electronics Spinoff: With a target November 1 complete date, the move will create a standalone electronics business that specializes in manufacturing materials for high-demand technologies such as semiconductor chips, printed circuit boards, thermal shielding, and AI computing.
- Johnson & Johnson’s Consumer Health Unit: Following its recent split into two companies, J&J’s consumer health division could be ripe for further restructuring, with potential M&A deals on the horizon.
- GE’s Final Breakup: With GE already splitting into separate aviation, healthcare, and energy businesses, further divestitures could come as each segment carves its own path.
This dealmaking frenzy is a goldmine.
Money will be made buying acquisition targets before takeovers.
Stocks of potential acquisition targets tend to surge once deals are announced.
Look for undervalued businesses in sectors primed for consolidation – including biotech, AI, and energy.
Another way to capitalize on this idea is with ETFs and mutual funds.
The Invesco Dynamic M&A ETF (MNA) tracks merger arbitrage strategies, profiting from announced deals with limited downside risk.
But keep in mind that not every merger works.
The acquiring firm’s stock can tank if a company overpays or regulatory obstacles pop up.
Smart traders can profit by shorting weak dealmakers.
With private credit fueling much of this deal activity, investing in firms like Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR could be a winning play.
Get Ready to Cash In
The 2025 M&A boom is shaping up to be one for the history books.
With a business-friendly administration, lower interest rates, and a flood of private credit, the market is primed for record-breaking deal activity.
If you position yourself correctly, the opportunities to profit are immense.
Stay ahead of the game, watch for the right trades, and get ready to cash in on what could be the biggest dealmaking frenzy of the decade.