AST SpaceMobile (Nasdaq: ASTS) has a fascinating business model. The company is building what it calls “the first and only space-based cellular broadband network” that works directly with everyday smartphones.
Imagine being able to get cell service absolutely anywhere on Earth – even in the middle of the ocean or deep in a rural area – without any special equipment. That’s AST’s bold vision, and it’s attracted partnerships with major carriers like AT&T, Vodafone, and Rakuten.
The stock has been on quite a journey. After hovering around $3 for much of early 2024, shares rocketed to over $38 as investors got excited about the space economy. But since then, the stock has tumbled back down to around $26, leaving many shareholders wondering what happened.
When we look at the company’s latest financials, it’s clear AST SpaceMobile is still very much in the building phase. For the first quarter of 2025, the company reported just $718,000 in revenue – yes, that’s thousands, not millions – while racking up operating expenses of $63.7 million.
The math isn’t pretty. AST burned through $28.5 million in cash for operations alone, not counting the additional $120.5 million it spent on property and equipment.
That’s a lot of cash flying out the door.
Now, the company does have a healthy war chest, with $874.5 million in cash. But that money won’t last forever – especially at the current burn rate. Management is optimistic about generating $50 million to $75 million in revenue during the second half of 2025, but that’s still just a drop in the bucket compared with the company’s expenses.
When we run AST SpaceMobile through The Value Meter, the picture gets even clearer.
The company’s enterprise value-to-net asset value (EV/NAV) ratio sits at 11.73, which is about 60% higher than the average of 7.33 for similar companies. In simple terms, investors are paying a steep premium for AST’s assets.
But the real concern is the company’s cash generation.
AST has posted negative free cash flow in each of the past four quarters, with its quarterly free cash flow averaging -17.82% of its net assets. While that’s slightly better than the -18.38% average for companies with similarly poor cash flow, it’s still a massive amount of cash burn for a company that’s years away from meaningful revenue.
While AST’s technology sounds revolutionary, the current valuation seems to be pricing in perfect execution of a business plan that faces enormous technical and regulatory hurdles.
For now, The Value Meter rates AST SpaceMobile as “Extremely Overvalued.”
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