Somewhat amazingly, the 30-year fixed is once again priced back near 7% thanks to a hot jobs report.
While many expected a soft report that would have aligned with the most recent negative ADP report, it wasn’t in the cards.
Instead, job gains beat forecasts, with 147,000 new jobs reported in June, higher than the 110,000 expected.
The unemployment rate also ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And with the big beautiful bill complete and the tariff stuff seemingly more tame, jobs data will likely be key to getting mortgage rates lower.
Mortgage Rates Back Near 7% After Hot Jobs Report
With the spending bill signed, and the tariffs losing steam despite continued flip flopping, labor appears to be focal point.
What I mean by that is if you want mortgage rates to move lower, you need the jobs data to turn more negative.
Thus far, the economy has continued to look resilient and fend off any implied weakness or recession talk thanks to more strong jobs data.
Of course, many including perhaps myself, think it’s just a matter of time. Not if, but when.
You’re hearing about a lot more layoffs, you’re hearing about people having a really hard time getting a job.
You’re hearing about AI displacing all types of workers, whether it’s white-collar jobs or even the trades.
And the jobs report wasn’t so hot once it was dissected, with private payrolls (excluding government jobs) seeing a pretty weak print.
But it wasn’t bad enough to keep the downward momentum on interest rates.
So ultimately it appears jobs are the key metric to keep an eye on when trying to determine where mortgage rates go next.
The Waiting Game for Lower Mortgage Rates Continues
Unfortunately for those wanting and waiting for lower mortgage rates, a really ugly jobs report has proven to be elusive lately.
It seemed probable this past week but then the low bar was easily exceeded.
That sent mortgage rates higher, and they had inched up prior the report’s release as well.
Part of the issue may have been that rates were trending lower for about six weeks straight and knocking on 6.50%’s doorstep.
So their winning streak was reason enough to reverse some. And the hotter jobs numbers solidified that move.
Taken together, 30-year fixed mortgage rates are now less than 20 basis points away from 7% again.
Sure, they’re at levels closer to March than they are April, May, and June.
But not by a whole lot. For your average home buyer, it’s not a huge difference in monthly payment.
I keep saying that we need to get to the better side of 6.50% to really improve sentiment.
A Soft Jobs Print Will Be Bittersweet
The other obvious negative (other than still-high mortgage rates) is you don’t really want to be rooting for a deteriorating economy.
And that seems to be the only way to really see major improvement at the moment.
But perhaps there’s a middle ground where employment cools a bit and interest rates also ease.
The Fed, despite not setting mortgage rates, could also provide more dovish cues to bond traders.
That could provide enough relief to prospective home buyers and existing ones looking to refinance.
Without worrying about home prices also falling by a substantial amount. Or unemployment becoming a major issue for the wider economy.
It is possible for rates and prices to ease together, something most can’t seem to wrap their head around.
Given where affordability stands today, we seem to need a little bit of help from both columns.
The name of the game though, at least when it comes to lower mortgage rates, continues to be patience.
This is basically what Fed Chair Powell has been echoing as well, whether we like it or not.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.