The New York Stock Exchange on Aug. 26, 2025.
Brendan McDermid | Reuters
The August jobs report on Friday is expected to confirm the labor market is weakening.
Just by how much is what will matter to investors. It can’t be too slow, nor can it be too hot.
Wall Street is on edge heading into Friday’s nonfarm payrolls. Economists polled by Dow Jones are forecasting the U.S. economy added 75,000 jobs last month, a weak estimate that’s only slightly higher than the dismal 73,000 headline number in the July report. The unemployment rate is also projected to tick higher, to 4.3% from 4.2%.
Investors may be able to shrug off a soft report so long as the headline number manages to hit a sweet spot, one that is cool enough to justify a September rate cut, but not so weak as to add to recession fears. Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge puts an “ideal” range that fulfills those two requirements between 70,000 and 95,000.
The August jobs report will also be heavily scrutinized for another reason. It will be the first after the poor jobs data and accompanying revisions last month prompted President Donald Trump to fire the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner. It’s a decision that has spurred fears of government overreach and cast doubt over federal economic data.
Trump nominated conservative economist E.J. Antoni to be the new head of the BLS. William Wiatrowski is acting commissioner until Antoni is confirmed.
Market reaction
The stock market could come under pressure if the jobs figure is outside of the expected range from traders. Luke Tilley, chief economist at Wilmington Trust, worries a downside surprise is coming in the jobs data, one that will ding markets. Just not quite yet.
The economist, who is projecting nonfarm payrolls growth of 75,000 in August, said that he expects a negative jobs number will come in the second half of the year at some point. He said it’s possible that the weak number could even come Friday.
KKM Financial investment chief Jeff Kilburg worries Friday’s jobs data could come in stronger than expected, given the low expectations heading into the report, and that could boost interest rates and reduce the chances the Fed cuts as many times as expected this year. Many traders are hoping for three rate cuts between now and year’s end.
Ultimately, Wall Street is hoping for greater clarity on the labor market, one that is alarming some who have noted companies are abstaining from hiring or firing workers in a troubling pattern.
“Is this just a case of, sort of, a ‘low hires, low fires,’ kind of stagnant labor market, or is there some real deterioration that’s starting to unfold?” said John Belton, portfolio manager at Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF. “And historically, when the labor market has started to deteriorate, it has a tendency to quickly deteriorate further.”
ADP’s private employment report, which can sometimes be a precursor to the official figures that follow, was weaker-than expected on Thursday, but within a comfortable range that didn’t panic markets. It showed an addition of just 54,000 private payrolls last month. The stock market gained on Thursday following the figures.