I got to thinking that mortgage rates might be kind of stuck where they are until more new data gets released.
There’s just one little problem at the moment; the government is closed. And has been since October 1st.
This means we won’t get a lot of new economic data, perhaps most notably the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
That was slated to be released this morning, but due to the shutdown it has been “delayed.”
Does that mean mortgage rates are stuck until the data starts flowing again? Maybe.
Mortgage Rates Stuck Near Recent Lows Isn’t Necessarily a Bad Thing
First things first, even if mortgage rates are stuck at current levels, it could be a lot worse.
After all, the 30-year fixed is currently hovering around 6.34%, whether you believe Freddie Mac or Mortgage News Daily, just above those red circles in the chart above.
They’re both at the same exact number. Of course, mortgage rates are typically offered in eighths, so that actual rate could be 6.25% or 6.375%.
Anyway, the point here is that mortgage rates are actually pretty attractive at the moment.
Imagine if the government had shut down when mortgage rates were 7% or higher?
Instead, they’re near some of the best levels since mortgage rates began their monster ascent higher back in 2022.
So rates possibly being stuck here could be viewed in a positive light. No surprise hot jobs report or CPI report to send mortgage rates higher again.
Aside from not releasing these reports, the government has also “halted collection of information for future reports,” including the CPI report that is expected to be released on October 15th.
So even if the government shutdown ends soon or before some of these reports are expected to be released, new data will be delayed and we’ll need to be patient.
But Are Mortgage Rates Really Stuck When We Have Private Economic Data?
While we aren’t going to get key economic reports like the CPI report, PPI report, retail sales, the BLS jobs report, or even housing starts, some economic data is still being released.
For example, we got the monthly ADP jobs report on Wednesday and it provided some pretty decent clues that the jobs data continues to be very weak.
We already knew labor was in a bad spot, with the June, July, and August reports all coming in light, along with big downward revisions.
The ADP report didn’t seem to detract much if at all, with the private sector losing 32,000 jobs in the month of September, well below the forecast of 45,000 jobs created.
And the number of jobs created in August 2025 was revised down from 54,000 to -3,000, similar to what we saw with the government’s job report a month ago.
Economists tend to put more trust into the BLS jobs report, but ADP is echoing the same stuff and still provides a pretty good sample size minus government jobs.
There’s also a growing trend toward independent data collection thanks to technology and AI, which could ramp up even faster in light of what’s happening with the government.
Especially with the massive revisions of late, which have caused some to lose faith.
Mass Firings, Geopolitics, and Other Surprises Can Move Mortgage Rates Too
Speaking of, we continue to hear threats of mass government firings, which could push up the unemployment rate even more.
There’s also always the odd geopolitical issue that could pop up unexpectedly, pushing bond yields lower if there’s a flight to safety away from stocks.
So if you think about it, there’s plenty going on even without the release of key reports.
As I wrote before, bond yields tend to fall during government shutdowns. Even if we’re flying in the dark data-wise, there might still be downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Of course, there may have been even more downward movement if the September jobs report were actually released today.
However, that’s not a given. We don’t know if that report would have come in hot or cold. It sure feels like it would have been another dud, but you never know.
In the meantime, enjoy some of the lowest mortgage rates of the past three years.
(photo: lorenz.markus97)
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.