It’s now been 10 days since the government shutdown began and mortgage rates appear to be moving lower.
They were already near three-year lows heading into the shutdown, and now with it dragging on, bond yields are falling as well.
The 10-year bond yield, which serves as a bellwether to 30-year fixed mortgage rates, was down nearly 10 basis points (bps) this morning.
It’s nearing the all-important 4% threshold, which if broken could lead to another leg down for mortgage rates.
But the more ominous takeaway here is that the economy doesn’t look so good anymore.
Bond Yields Drop as Gov Shutdown Hits Day 10
As noted, the 10-year bond yield was down nearly 10 bps this morning despite the release of any government data.
We missed what is arguably the most important data point last Friday, the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
And a slew of other reports, but the BLS is reportedly “bringing some furloughed workers back in” to get the CPI report for September released.
While it likely will be delayed (since the release date is October 15th), the hope is apparently to get it out before the Fed’s next meeting on October 28th.
Of course, the odds of another 25-bp cut in the federal funds rate is still at nearly 95%, per CME FedWatch.
So it’s doubtful any piece of data released between now and then will make much of a difference.
There’s just a general vibe that the economy has kind of turned, even though the stock market is ripping higher without a care in the world.
But given stocks are trading near all-time highs, a pullback could be in store soon and that could lead to a rally in bonds.
Investors typically flee the stock market when times get tough and pile into safe-haven bonds, which increases the price of bonds but lowers with associated yield.
When that happens, interest rates on mortgages tend to move lower.
So there’s a decent thesis here that mortgage rates could move markedly lower in the fourth quarter of the year.
For reference, back in December 2024 I predicted a 30-year fixed in the high 5s by the end of the year, and we aren’t far off at the moment.
I’ve also explained that mortgage rates tend to move lower during government shutdowns, so between that fact and the very weak labor data as of late, there’s a lot of downward pressure on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rates Slip Below Year-Ago Levels (Again)
Meanwhile, mortgage rates are already beating their year-ago levels, per the latest weekly survey from Freddie Mac.
The mortgage financier said the 30-year fixed hit 6.30% this week, down from 6.34% a week ago and 6.32% this time last year.
The lowest reading for the 30-year fixed in 2024 was 6.08% last September, but it was very short-lived as an errant hot jobs report and subsequent election caused rates to shoot higher.
However, it doesn’t seem there is much standing in the way of lower mortgage rates this year, with economic data decidedly poor and much of Trump’s policy baked in.
That doesn’t mean we won’t see pullbacks or surprises, but it does feel like the “trend is our friend” right now for mortgage rates.
Meaning there’s a decent chance they could move lower and beat all the readings for 2024 at some point this year.
And dare I say dip below 6%, which would be the lowest reading since very early February 2023.
In the meantime, even if mortgage rates are kind of stuck due to a data blackout, they’re in a pretty good spot.
Given they were flirting with 7% on multiple occasions this year, entering a government shutdown at around 6.25% seems pretty fortuitous.
Read on: How to track mortgage rates with ease.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.