People walk past an Aritzia store on Fifth Avenue on Black Friday, in New York City on November 29, 2024.
Adam Gray | AFP | Getty Images
Black Friday is one of the biggest shopping days of the year.
But amid concerns about the economy, persistent inflation and President Donald Trump’s latest wave of tariff hikes, shoppers may not be as eager to splurge this season.
Consumers plan to spend an average of $622 between Nov. 27 and Dec. 1, down 4% from last year, according to a new Deloitte survey released Monday. The overall belt-tightening was largely due to a higher cost of living and financial constraints, Deloitte found.
The Black Friday-Cyber Monday week is typically the unofficial start of the holiday shopping season, although many shoppers started earlier this year to make the most of sales events like Amazon Prime Day and to get ahead of tariff-induced price increases.
Overall, shoppers are trying to spread out their spending to be “more strategic,” according to Stephanie Carls, a retail insights expert at RetailMeNot. That also includes stacking savings, such as pairing sales events with promo codes or coupons as well as cash-back offers.
“They are using every tool that they can to protect those budgets,” Carls said.
Debt issues have been affecting a growing number of consumers across all income levels, several studies show. For many Americans, wage gains have largely not kept pace with stubborn inflation, which makes it harder to make ends meet in a typical month.
Still, shoppers tend to rely on Thanksgiving week promotions for their gift buying: About 60% have already put items in their carts to purchase over the holiday shopping weekend, but 38% say they plan to only buy the items that are at least 50% off, Deloitte found.
“Value continues to be the centerpiece of the holiday season,” Brian McCarthy, principal and retail strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting, said in a statement.
Other reports also show a potential pullback this year. According to a recent LendingTree report, 64% of Americans plan to shop on Black Friday, but 39% said higher prices will lead them to spend less this year.
One “notable headwind,” according to the National Retail Federation, was the longest federal government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted 43 days.
Americans were already facing mounting challenges in an increasingly bifurcated consumer economy. Income disruptions just ahead of the peak shopping season make budgeting particularly difficult, according to NRF’s holiday sales forecast.
A ‘K’-shaped holiday season
Overall economic growth in the U.S. has been good, but not all Americans have benefited, according to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
In the so-called “K”-shaped economy, some consumers are in financial distress because their incomes have not kept pace with inflation over the last five years. “That means their buying power has diminished as the overall price level of goods and services has risen noticeably,” Wren wrote in a Nov. 12 research note.
At the same time, consumers at the higher end of the income scale have strengthened their financial position, largely by benefiting from stock market rallies and appreciating home values. “Their discretionary income continues to be strong and funds the purchases of cars, houses, vacations, and meals at restaurants,” Wren wrote.
Although, according to Deloitte’s survey, even higher-income households plan to cut back during the Black Friday-Cyber Monday week.