Mortgage Rates Today, Thursday, January 15: Stable for Now

We’re not seeing much movement from mortgage rates today.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage remained at 5.94% APR, according to rates provided to SS by Zillow. This is unchanged from yesterday and 11 basis points lower than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

True stability like this — where day over day you see the exact same numbers — isn’t likely to last long. But sometimes mortgage interest rates will trend relatively flat. It’s not as thrilling as a rate drop, but rate stability isn’t a bad thing. When rates are less of a moving target, you can feel more confident about your homebuying budget.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

This week, the Nerds are following reactions to December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which was released Tuesday morning. This provides a monthly snapshot of inflation. There weren’t many surprises in this data, which shows inflation has been slowly moderating. Prices rose 2.7% in December, about the same amount as the previous month.

That’s right on track with what analysts expected, although inflation still remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. Controlling inflation is one of the Federal Reserve’s main priorities when setting the overnight borrowing rate (which banks pay to fund home loans, influencing the mortgage rates they set).

The Fed’s other main priority is reducing unemployment, and the December jobs report was released this past Friday. The data is a mixed bag: The U.S. added 50,000 jobs last month, which is below economists’ projections of 73,000, according to a Wall Street Journal poll. However, unemployment also fell to 4.4%, after months of increases going back to August (with the exception of October, where we don’t have data due to the government shutdown).

Several leaders from the Federal Reserve are also scheduled to speak this week, including five of the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee. This will provide further insight into how central bankers might vote at their Jan. 27-28 meeting, as they often like to telegraph their interpretations of major economic data.

However, this week’s Fed chatter is likely to be overshadowed by discussion of risks to the Fed’s independence, following recent Justice Department subpoenas involving Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

While we still have a couple weeks until the Fed meets at the end of this month, analysts are currently predicting central bankers will vote to hold rates steady.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.44% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use SS’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

SS’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Location and property type

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.