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The average tax refund is 10.6% higher so far this season, compared to roughly the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data.
As of Feb. 27, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,742, up from $3,382 about one year ago, the IRS reported on Friday. The average is down from the $3,804 reported last week.
Typically, the average refund spikes around mid-February, once data includes payments claiming the earned income tax credit or the refundable part of the child tax credit, known as the additional child tax credit or ACTC, according to a Bipartisan Policy Center analysis. After the February peak, the average generally declines gradually through Tax Day.
The latest filing data reflects roughly 51.5 million individual returns received, out of about 164 million expected through the April 15 deadline.
As the midterm elections approach, Republicans have been laser-focused on the size of tax refunds this season, with many pointing to the changes enacted via President Donald Trump’s “big beautiful bill.”
In a late January release, the White House said average tax refunds could jump “by $1,000 or more,” citing several media reports that reference early October research from investment bank Piper Sandler.
Why tax refunds could be bigger this season
Four of Trump’s new tax breaks — the deductions for tip income, overtime, seniors and auto loan interest — go on a new form, known as Schedule 1-A, which is part of individual tax returns.
As of March 4, some 43% of returns included Schedule 1-A, and refunds for those filings were $775 bigger than the typical refund last year, Frank Bisignano, Social Security Administration commissioner and IRS CEO, said this week during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing.
Trump’s bigger deduction limit for state and local taxes, known as SALT, could also boost refunds for eligible filers who itemize tax breaks, experts say.
Some of the smaller changes include a bigger standard deduction and more generous child tax credit for 2025.
However, tax refunds or balances due also vary based on workers’ paycheck withholdings, or other payments made throughout the year, experts say.
“What I’m running into is [the changes are] providing hundreds of dollars of difference, not thousands of dollars,” Tom O’Saben, director of tax content and government relations at the National Association of Tax Professionals, told CNBC.