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The average tax refund is 10.2% higher so far this season, compared to about the same period in 2025, according to the latest IRS filing data. The year-over-year percentage change is down from the 14.2% increase reported last week.
As of Feb. 20, the average refund amount for individual filers was $3,804, up from $3,453 about one year prior, the IRS reported on Friday.
The total amount refunded was about $109 billion, up 6.9% from 2025, according to the IRS release. But the total returns processed were down by 2.4%.
Amid consumer concerns about affordability, the Trump administration has emphasized how Trump’s “big beautiful bill” may impact the size of tax refunds this season.
In a late January release, the White House said average tax refunds could increase “by $1,000 or more,” citing several media reports that reference early October research from investment bank Piper Sandler.
A Feb. 26 report from Oxford Economics estimates that tax refunds will jump by nearly 20% this year, with more benefits flowing to middle- and upper-income households than usual, based on changes enacted via Trump’s 2025 tax cuts.
However, individual refunds could vary based on 2025 paycheck withholdings and which of Trump’s provisions impact their family’s situation, experts say.
Average tax refunds typically increase by late February
By law, the IRS can’t send refunds claiming the earned income tax credit or the refundable part of the child tax credit, known as the additional child tax credit or ACTC, until Feb. 15.
That means the agency’s first two filing season statistics releases, reflecting data through Feb. 6 and Feb. 13, respectively, did not include the millions of refunds with these credits.
“As we head into late February, the average refund size pops — it gets larger,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank.
From Feb. 13 to Feb. 20, the average tax refund size jumped from $2,476 to $3,804. But with limited tax filing data, it’s too early to make conclusions about average tax refunds this season, experts say.
For 2025 returns, the maximum EITC is worth up to $8,046 for filers with three or more qualifying children. For 2024 returns, the average EITC payment was $2,916, according to the IRS. Trump’s tax cuts did not change the EITC for 2025.
Trump’s legislation made permanent a higher child tax credit and boosted the maximum tax break to $2,200. The refundable portion, ACTC, will continue to adjust to inflation, but Trump’s cuts did not change the amount from 2024. The ACTC is worth up to $1,700 for 2025.