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The average tax refund is 22% higher so far this season, Treasury Secretary and acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday.
The 2026 tax season opened Jan. 26, and the IRS has not yet released official filing data. It’s unclear how many days of returns Bessent’s figure reflects or what comparison period he used.
However, “early data can be deceiving,” Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonprofit think tank, wrote in a tax season guide on Jan. 22.
In 2025, the average refund for individual filers was $3,052 through Oct. 17, according to the IRS.
Typically, filers receive a refund when they overpay taxes throughout the year via paycheck withholdings or estimated payments. Alternatively, filers owe a balance when they don’t pay enough.
In recent years, IRS data has reflected a smaller refund during the beginning of the tax season, but those payments have “risen sharply” in mid-February once the IRS starts issuing refunds that include the earned income tax credit or additional child tax credit, Lautz wrote.
After the February peak, the average refund has “declined slightly” through the April 15 deadline, he wrote.
Filers expecting bigger tax refunds
For the 2026 filing season, the size of tax refunds has been a key political topic with the midterm elections approaching.
President Donald Trump has promised that 2026 will be the “largest tax refund season of all time” based on changes enacted via his “big beautiful bill.”
The legislation added new tax breaks for 2025, and the IRS did not adjust paycheck withholdings, which could result in refunds for many workers.
However, there could be “a lot of variation between taxpayers,” Garrett Watson, director of policy analysis at the Tax Foundation, previously told CNBC.
Ultimately, the size of your refund, or balance due, depends on which new tax breaks apply to your situation and how much you paid throughout the year, experts say.