China Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland as trade tensions continue over U.S. tariffs with China, in Oakland, California, on May 12, 2025.
Carlos Barria | Reuters
BEIJING — China’s economy likely slowed in the third quarter, with official data due Monday expected to confirm weaker growth, according to analysts polled by Reuters.
The analysts forecast gross domestic product growth rose 4.8% in the July-to-September period from a year ago, easing from 5.2% in the previous quarter.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes real estate, is likely to have expanded by only 0.1% in the first nine months of the year, according to analyst estimates.
Retail sales are expected to have slowed to 3% year on year in September, while industrial production likely eased to 5%.
Official data released for September so far have shown continued resilience in China’s exports despite tensions with the U.S.
The core consumer price index, which strips out food and energy, rose at its fastest pace since February 2024. But headline inflation missed expectations, falling 0.3% as deflationary pressures persisted.