After a very bumpy start to the week, mortgage rates are falling back toward 6% again.
They jumped on Monday after an unexpected weekend strike took out Iranian leadership and led to a spike in oil prices.
Instead of getting the typical flight to safety in bonds we see after geopolitical events, both stocks and bonds sold off and yields jumped.
That led to a 30-year fixed that appeared to be moving firmly back into the 6s after finally enjoying some time in the high-5s.
But the move higher might be short-lived if the situation in the Middle East calms down.
Mortgage Rates Finally See Some Relief After Rough Few Days
As noted, the 30-year fixed was averaging just below 6% by several measures (Freddie Mac and Mortgage News Daily) for the first time since 2022.
Then a joint U.S.-Israeli strike carried out against Iran severely rattled global markets, sending both oil prices and bond yields higher.
The 30-year fixed climbed from 5.99% on Friday to 6.12% on Monday, per MND, then inched up even more on Tuesday before finally beginning to ease some.
Today, mortgage rates made a more decisive move lower, falling to 6.07% from 6.13% as 10-year bonds also came down.
Driving them lower might be news that the U.S. is taking steps to ensure ships can continue to travel through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran’s southern border.
Iran had threatened to close the channel and damage any ships that attempted to pass through.
But President Trump issued a statement on Truth Social saying, “Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf.”
In addition, he said “If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible.”
It seems the White House quickly realized the serious disruption in the shipment of oil, which could exacerbate inflation at a critical time, leading to higher prices on both gas and everyday goods.
As such, they took immediate steps to assuage any fears on that front before conditions worsened.
Of course, there are still a lot of unknowns and we continue to hear reports of scattered bombings and violence throughout the Middle East, with perhaps more to come.
But it seems the initial sharp reaction in bond yields (and mortgage rates) has begun to unwind.
Where things go next will depend on the trajectory of the war.
Warsh Officially Nominated as Next Fed Chair
In other news, Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chair, replacing current chair Jerome Powell.
Many expect Warsh to be dovish and in better alignment with the wishes of the Trump administration.
That generally means additional rate cuts, which will at least reduce short-term lending rates and could have some effect on longer rates as well.
We know the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, but it could prove to be another tailwind (and critically not a headwind) for mortgage rates.
This kind of adds to the momentum mortgage rates have enjoyed since the start of the year and could help get them back on their winning track.
Another big mover comes on Friday with the monthly jobs report from the BLS.
If that comes in cooler-than-expected, mortgage rates should see another move lower, back toward those 5-handle rates.
If it’s somehow hotter-than-expected, we could see rates pop even higher than they were on Monday.
So there’s a lot at stake in that report as it comes at a very crucial time given the news in the Middle East that has investors skittish.
It’s also early March, which is prime time for home buyers to start signing contracts and locking in mortgage rates on their purchases.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.