Yesterday was a good day for mortgage rates and a very bad day for the stock market.
That tends to be how it works because when stocks fall, investors seek the safety of bonds.
When more bonds are being scooped up, their associated yield (or interest rate) falls.
That’s essentially what we saw when all major indices nosedived on a series of weak employment reports.
But the real kicker will be the delayed January jobs report due out next Wednesday.
Mortgage Rates Back Near the Lows of the Year Thanks to Stock Market Rout
If you’re curious if there’s relationship between mortgage rates and stocks, it’s typically that when one goes up the other goes down. And vice versa.
It’s not always true, and lately it’s been a complex relationship, but with time it’ll probably get back to that general dynamic.
Ultimately, the stock market has been running hot for years and there hasn’t been much interest in bonds, which don’t pay a whole lot in comparison.
But if/when the market decides to get spooked for once, that could change. And all of a sudden bonds wouldn’t look like a terrible option for investors.
Of course, that would also mean that things aren’t going too well in the economy, whether it’s high unemployment and/or slowing growth.
There’s been a lot of concern about sky-high stock valuations for years now, not to mention all the speculative stuff like cryptocurrency and NFTs and all that.
There will come a day when everyone realizes they want to hold something a little more stable.
And if the last day or two taught us anything, it’s that the stock market and “value stores” like Bitcoin are incredibly fragile.
Anyway, the one sort of silver lining of a stock market rout is lower 30-year fixed mortgage rates, usually.
That’s if inflation doesn’t rear its ugly head again at the same time…
The 30-Year Fixed Is Being Advertised in the Mid-5s Again
I always take a quick glance at mortgage rates advertised by a variety of big banks just to see daily movement.
And from what I saw, mortgage rates are pretty close to the lows of 2026 again, after creeping higher for a few weeks.
Ideally they continue to drift lower in a measured way, but it’s a bit of a double-edged sword because mortgage rates falling could portend bigger economic concerns.
One big bank I check out from time to time is down to 5.5% for a 30-year fixed with one discount point due at closing.
That’s basically as low as I’ve seen it and their pricing has been pretty aggressive lately in general.
A more typical quote might be something around 5.99% or 6% for the same upfront cost. Still decent.
It’s basically in line with the lowest mortgage rates of 2026, which would also be the lowest rates since mid-2022 as well.
The next big mover is the delayed January job report, which was pushed to next Wednesday February 11th due to the short-lived government shutdown.
That has the potential to cement this move lower for mortgage rates, or allow them to bounce higher if it comes in hot somehow.
But much of the jobs data released this week, whether it was JOLTS or private payrolls from ADP or layoffs from Challenger all pointed to a deteriorating labor market.
So it wouldn’t shock me to see the BLS jobs report come in cold as well.
That report is followed by CPI on Friday, so next week has the potential to be a really interesting one for mortgage rates.
Jobs Report Could Set the Tone for Mortgage Rates Going Into Spring
Next week’s data could set the tone for mortgage rates going into the spring home buying season, which could then make or break the housing market.
The housing market seems quite fragile right now and little swings in rates have the potential to dictate its direction.
By the way, if you’re concerned about your stocks and 401k and investments all tanking in order to get a lower mortgage rate, consider this.
You can lock in a 30-year fixed mortgage today and keep that low rate for the next three decades while your investments recover over time.
So you get the benefit of the fixed interest rate and the ability for investments to rebound, assuming you don’t touch them.
In other words, it’s possible to get the best of both worlds. Let’s just make sure the labor market holds up OK as well!
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.