If you’re here looking for lower mortgage interest rates, today is not your day.
The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.1% APR, according to rates provided to SS by Zillow. This is 11 basis points higher than yesterday and 14 basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Keep in mind that mortgage rates are always on the move, and that if you’re tracking rates day-to-day, you’re going to see a lot of volatility. Zooming out and looking at the bigger picture — like a graph showing at least a month’s worth of rate data — can help you see the overall trend.
While the economy never sleeps, markets are closed on the weekends. The rates you see Friday are unlikely to change much (if at all) until Monday.
Average mortgage rates, last 30 days
📉 When will mortgage rates drop?
Next week, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve. Central bankers at the Fed are scheduled to meet March 17-18, when they’re widely expected to keep the federal funds rate as-is in the face of economic uncertainty. (The federal funds rate indirectly influences mortgage rates.) The Fed is tasked with balancing inflation with the employment situation, which looks weaker than expected: February’s jobs report showed the U.S. lost 92,000 jobs last month, compared to a projected gain of 50,000.
Meanwhile, we got two major inflation reports this week. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation remained steady in February at 2.4%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (CPE) — the Fed’s preferred measure, released this morning — showed core inflation at 2.8% and signs of weaker consumer spending in January.
That isn’t a red flag on its own, but today’s CPE report is already out of date. The U.S. has since entered a new (potentially costly) war in the Middle East, and any effects of this on inflation, such as higher energy prices, aren’t reflected in this data yet.
“This means things could be more fragile right now than we know,” says Elizabeth Renter, SS senior economist. “Keep in mind, this is January data, and a lot has happened in the past several weeks. A weaker jobs report for February and inflation that remained above target before the war in Iran began all set the stage for potential fragility.”
After attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, nervous markets have already sent oil prices surging. When oil supply drops, unemployment and inflation can go up — rippling through the economy to disrupt those steady near-6% mortgage rates we’ve all gotten accustomed to since January.
Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).
With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.6% or higher.
🏡 Should I start shopping for a home?
There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.
🔒 Should I lock my rate?
Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.
🤓 Nerdy Reminder: Rates can change daily, and even hourly. If you’re happy with the deal you have, it’s okay to commit.
🧐 Why is the rate I saw online different from the quote I got?
In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:
Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.
👀 If I apply now, can I get the rate I saw today?
Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.