Mortgage Rates Today, Wednesday, February 4: Mostly the Same

If you can afford a mortgage rate around 6%, this winter has been a great time to shop for a home loan.

The average interest rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage inched lower to 5.96% APR, according to rates provided to SS by Zillow. This is two basis points lower than yesterday and two basis points higher than a week ago. (See our chart below for more specifics.) A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.

If you’re liking what you see, it might be time to get serious about your home search or start checking that refi math.

Mortgage rates are constantly changing, since a major part of how rates are set depends on reactions to new inflation reports, job numbers, Fed meetings, global news … you name it. For example, even tiny changes in the bond market can shift mortgage pricing.

The Nerds had been looking forward to the January jobs report, which was due to come out this Friday. Analysts need official employment data to gauge whether the Fed was a bit hasty in its decision to pause cuts to the federal funds rate in January.

However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on Monday that the report would be delayed because of the partial government shutdown. On Tuesday, the House voted to pass a funding bill that would end the shutdown, but BLS has not provided a new release date yet as of Wednesday morning.

However, we do have private employment data from the payroll processor ADP, which dropped this morning. The results were sluggish — the private sector added just 22,000 jobs in January. Economists in the Wall Street Journal’s survey had forecasted that private employers would have added 45,000 jobs last month.

“Weak and highly concentrated growth in the labor market translates to weaker growth across the economy,” said Elizabeth Renter, SS’s senior economist. “When the labor market is adding fewer jobs (and losing them in some sectors), the economy is less dynamic.”

The weakening of the labor market could prompt central bankers to consider cutting the federal funds rate again in March, and we may see lenders lower their mortgage rates in anticipation. As of right now, however, analysts are still largely predicting that the Fed will continue to hold rates steady at its next meeting.

Refinancing might make sense if today’s rates are at least 0.5 to 0.75 of a percentage point lower than your current rate (and if you plan to stay in your home long enough to break even on closing costs).

With rates where they are right now, you may want to start considering a refi if your current rate is around 6.46% or higher.

Also consider your goals: Are you trying to lower your monthly payment, shorten your loan term or turn home equity into cash? For example, you might be more comfortable with paying a higher rate for a cash-out refinance than you would for a rate-and-term refinance, so long as the overall costs are lower than if you kept your original mortgage and added a HELOC or home equity loan.

If you’re looking for a lower rate, use SS’s refinance calculator to estimate savings and understand how long it would take to break even on the costs of refinancing.

There is no universal “right” time to start shopping — what matters is whether you can comfortably afford a mortgage now at today’s rates.

If the answer is yes, don’t get too hung up on whether you could be missing out on lower rates later; you can refinance down the road. Focus on getting preapproved, comparing lender offers, and understanding what monthly payment works for your budget.

SS’s affordability calculator can help you estimate your potential monthly payment. If a new home isn’t in the cards right now, there are still things you can do to strengthen your buyer profile. Take this time to pay down existing debts and build your down payment savings. Not only will this free up more cash flow for a future mortgage payment, it can also get you a better interest rate when you’re ready to buy.

If you already have a quote you’re happy with, you should consider locking your mortgage rate, especially if your lender offers a float-down option. A float-down lets you take advantage of a better rate if the market drops during your lock period.

Rate locks protect you from increases while your loan is processed, and with the market forever bouncing around, that peace of mind can be worth it.

The rate you see advertised is a sample rate — usually for a borrower with perfect credit, making a big down payment, and paying for mortgage points. That won’t match every buyer’s circumstances.

In addition to market factors outside of your control, your customized quote depends on your:

• Location and property type

Even two people with similar credit scores might get different rates, depending on their overall financial profiles.

Maybe — but even personalized rate quotes can change until you lock. That’s because lenders adjust pricing multiple times a day in response to market changes.