Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller converses on the sidelines of a monetary policy conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution in Palo Alto, California, U.S., May 9, 2025.
Ann Saphir | Reuters
The odds that Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be named the next chairman crossed above 50% for the first time on prediction market Kalshi.
Waller’s probability spiked from just about 16% on Wednesday after Bloomberg News reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that President Donald Trump’s advisors like his openness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasting, rather than current data. It also reported that Waller has met with Trump’s team about the Fed chief role but hasn’t met with the president himself.
Waller’s chance on Kalshi has exceeded previous front-runners former Fed official Kevin Warsh and current National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, whose odds stand at 20% and 35%, respectively.
Trump nominated Waller to the Fed in 2020. In the most recent Fed decision, in July, Waller, along with Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, publicly dissented with the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady. Waller said the Fed’s wait-and-see approach is “overly cautious.”
“Waller is an ideal choice for investors given his recent dovish posture and political independence credibility,” Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a note.
Hassett and Warsh have advocated for lower interest rates. Current Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, has been a frequent target of Trump’s criticism for keeping rates elevated.
On Polymarket, another popular prediction platform, Waller is also the front-runner with the chance rising to 35%. Hassett has a chance of 22%, while Warsh is currently at 11% on Polymarket. A total of 31% of participants wagered that no announcement will be made by December.
On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he had four candidates in mind for the top slot but appeared to give the nod to both Warsh and Hassett.
“He’s very good,” Trump said, referring to Warsh. “Sometimes they’re all very good, until you put them in there, and then they don’t do so good. But … I think he’s a very good guy. I’d say Kevin and Kevin, both Kevins are very good.”
Those comments immediately sparked a flurry of activity that sent the odds for Hassett and Warsh higher on Kalshi.