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The government shutdown will delay a key announcement that affects millions of Social Security beneficiaries — just how much their benefit checks will increase in 2026.
The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for next year will be revealed once September consumer price index data, which was slated for release on Oct. 15, is available. Due to the federal government shutdown, the CPI release has been pushed to Oct. 24.
“The Social Security Administration (SSA) will use this release to generate and announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 24 as well,” a Social Security spokesperson told CNBC.com via email.
The 2026 COLA for approximately 75 million Social Security and Supplemental Security Income, or SSI, beneficiaries will go into effect for January payments “without any delay due to the current government lapse in appropriation,” the spokesperson said.
Experts estimate the benefit increase may fall in the range of 2.7% to 2.8%, based on the most recent government inflation data. Such an increase would push the average retirement benefit up by about $54 per month.
Those projected increases would be higher than the 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment that went into effect in 2025, as well as the average 2.6% COLA beneficiaries have seen over the past 20 years, according to The Senior Citizens League.
Yet the COLA for 2026 is likely to be substantially lower than adjustments after the pandemic-era inflation spike. The highest recent COLA adjustment of 8.7% took effect in 2023, following a 5.9% increase in benefits for 2022. Both of those increases were the highest in decades at the time.
The size of the Social Security increase retirees receive will depend on the size of their Medicare Part B premiums, which are typically deducted directly from benefit checks.
The standard monthly Part B premium may go up by 11.6% — or $21.50 per month — to $206.50 per month from $185, according to projections from Medicare trustees. Higher earners may pay additional monthly costs, known as income-related monthly adjustment amounts, or IRMAAs.
Medicare Part B premium amounts for 2026 also have yet to be announced.