Even though the Supreme Court struck down a large portion of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda — with a judge later ordering the government to prepare to potentially pay billions of dollars in refunds to importers who paid the tariffs — consumers shouldn’t expect to see any money back.
That’s according to the latest CNBC CFO Council quarterly survey. While 12 of the 25 chief financial officers said their company plans to apply for tariff refunds, none said they intend to directly share that money with customers.
Six of those polled said they did not plan to pass on any portion of the tariff refunds they might receive, seven were not sure and 12 answered “not applicable.”
Ten of the executives in the C-suite said they think it could take a year or longer to receive repayment, and only three of the CFOs expected repayment this year. The other 12 CFOs said they do not plan to apply for tariff refunds.
The CFO Council survey is a sampling of views from chief financial officers at large organizations across sectors of the U.S. economy. CFO Council members took the survey between March 23 and April 2.
Meanwhile, the legal battle over Trump’s tariffs is far from over. The same day the Supreme Court ruled in February that “reciprocal tariffs” were illegal, Trump announced a new “global tariff” rate of 10% under a separate statute, Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, for a period of 150 days. He later said he would increase global tariffs to 15%.
US President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Chancellor Merz (CDU) at the White House. Topics include the war in Iran, the tariff dispute between the EU and the USA, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and China policy.
Kay Nietfeld | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
Tariffs are taxes on imports from foreign nations and are paid by U.S. entities that import the item. Businesses often bear some of the cost and pass on the rest to consumers through higher prices. In this way, tariffs have had an overall inflationary impact on the economy, economists say.
Even if companies were to receive refunds, the CNBC CFO Council survey results are “not a surprise,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s.
After factoring in the hefty toll on U.S. businesses, including higher costs and supply chain adjustments to reduce tariff exposure, CFOs may be thinking “this is just compensation,” Zandi said, “they are going to hold on to those [refunds].”
The Trump administration may pressure companies to pass those savings on, he added, “but that will be very difficult to do.”
Where tariff rebate efforts stand
The president has floated the idea of putting some tariff revenue directly in the hands of Americans, in the form of a tariff dividend check. However, any such broad-based benefit program would require legislation passed by Congress.
Both Democrats and Republicans have tried to capitalize on Trump’s tariff agenda ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. No legislation has been approved yet, although several tariff refund bills have been introduced in Congress.
Last year, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025, which pitched a stimulus check funded with tariff revenue. The Senate referred that bill to the Committee on Finance, where it remains.
In March of this year, Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., introduced another bill that would create a new tax rebate for those hit by higher costs for everyday items due to the now-defunct tariff regime. Heinrich’s bill, dubbed the Tariff Refunds for Working Families Act, would tap the $166 billion collected by the tariffs to fund the new rebate.
That legislation has also been referred to the Committee on Finance.
Other efforts, including the Trump Tariff Rebate Act introduced by Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and the American Consumer Tariff Rebate Act of 2026, introduced by Rep. Henry Cuellar, D-Texas, are sitting in House committees.
“The likelihood of tariff refunds passing in Congress still seems remote,” said certified financial planner Stephen Kates, a financial analyst at Bankrate.
“A Republican-backed bill would all but admit that tariffs were a policy mistake, even if it would be initially popular to send out checks,” he said. “Democrats have little incentive to support such a measure ahead of the midterms, since the costs of tariffs and higher gas prices are widely associated with Republicans.”