Trump Pauses Tariffs—But What Does That Mean For Your Grocery Bill?

Markets rallied. Wall Street cheered. But if you’re standing in the grocery aisle wondering whether prices are about to drop—the short answer is no.

Today, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on new tariffs for most countries—but at the same time, he raised tariffs on Chinese imports from 104% to 125%. The stock market surged in response: the S&P 500 climbed 7%, the Nasdaq jumped over 9%, and the Dow gained more than 2,600 points. Investors may have welcomed the pause as a cooling-off signal, but economists are still cautious.

From a food perspective, this doesn’t resolve much. The pause is temporary, and tariffs on Chinese goods—which include categories that affect the food supply—are still high. Whether this 90-day delay leads to anything that’s more permanent remains to be seen. But for now, the pressure on ingredients, pricing, and supply chains isn’t going anywhere.

According to a Reuters report, major retailers like Walmart and Target are already in tense negotiations with suppliers over proposed price increases as brands work to absorb higher costs tied to tariffs. That kind of uncertainty keeps prices sticky, even when policy temporarily loosens its grip.

For shoppers, this isn’t relief—it’s a stall. And when it comes to essentials like garlic, apple juice, or cooking oils, even temporary uncertainty can keep prices higher than they need to be.

Earlier this year, more than 1,000 product categories were flagged as vulnerable to tariff-related price increases—including a wide range of everyday grocery staples. Think: garlic, apple juice concentrate (used in everything from juice blends to snacks), frozen seafood like shrimp and tilapia, spices, vinegar-based sauces like soy sauce, and processed vegetable oils. These are ingredients that show up quietly but consistently in a lot of what we eat. And because China supplies a significant share of these imports, there’s not much wiggle room when it comes to sourcing alternatives quickly.

For shoppers, this means any impact on food prices is likely to be delayed, uneven, and conditional. A few categories might stabilize—especially pantry staples like dried garlic or apple juice concentrate—but only if retailers pass along savings (and that’s a big if). Much depends on whether the pause leads to something more lasting or if tariffs snap back into place at the end of the window. There’s also the question of global response: will China hold steady or counter?

Financial analysts, including those at Raymond James, are already urging caution. The market might be reacting to the pause, but that doesn’t guarantee trade restrictions are going away. And it certainly doesn’t mean we’re done feeling the effects.

What Foods Could Still Be at Risk?

Even with the temporary pause, many items in our shopping carts are still vulnerable if tariffs return—or if trade tensions escalate. Here’s’ what might still be impacted:

• Frozen seafood – including shrimp, tilapia, and mollusks
• Apple juice concentrate – heavily reliant on Chinese imports
• Dried garlic – a staple in both home kitchens and food manufacturing
• Vegetable oils – especially non-soybean varieties used in processed foods
• Vinegar and sauces – including soy sauce and flavoring bases
• Dehydrated vegetables and mushrooms – often used in soups and seasoning blends
• Snack foods and flavorings – low-profile but high-frequency items in packaged goods
• Honey and powdered dairy products – smaller-volume imports, but still tariff-sensitive

Even price changes in any category can add up—especially when passed down through areas that shoppers might not expect: what we eat at a restaurant, brands who use these ingredients, and even the cost of processed staples.

Why This Matters

Tariffs aren’t just a policy headline—they shape what ends up on our plates. When imported ingredients become more expensive, it ripples through the food system: into manufacturing, into restaurant pricing, and into the quiet choices people make at the grocery store. And while the headlines are focused on market wins, many consumers are still feelingthe squeeze.

A March poll from the University of Illinois found that a majority of Americans are worried about tariffs pushing grocery prices even higher. Concern is especially high among Democrats and Independents, and those who are most worried about tariffs are also more likely to expect inflation to worsen in the coming months.

And now, a HarrisX poll that came out on the same day shows Americans are split: some see the pause as a welcome move, and others view it as too little, too late. What do most agree on? Prices are still too high, and few expect that to change overnight.

Pausing tariffs might give markets a jolt, but it doesn’t change the fact that food inflation is personal. People notice when the same bag of groceries costs $20 more than it used to. Until there’s a longer-term plan—or a full rollback—this is less about economic recovery and more about political timing. Food, as always, tells the fuller story.