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Weekly mortgage rates stayed largely flat, breaking a six-week streak of increases. Rates remain stubbornly elevated compared to where they were at the beginning of 2026. On a day-to-day basis, the average 30-year rate has been flirting with 6.5% APR. If it does reach that threshold, it will be for the first time since September 2025.
Fed is unlikely to worry about employment
The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the March jobs report this morning, showing employment gains of 178,000 — far stronger than both February (-92,000) and January (+126,000). Despite ups and downs with hiring, the unemployment rate has remained fairly stable in 2026 so far.
“Today’s increase is significant, but it doesn’t mean the labor market is back on track or growing robustly,” says Elizabeth Renter, SS senior economist. “The gains are highly concentrated in a few industries, not broad-based across the economy.”
These growing industries were healthcare, construction, transportation and warehousing.
Two key inflation reports — the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) — are scheduled for release next week. The war in Iran has put upward pressure on oil prices, which could cause inflation to rise.
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What this means for mortgage rates
The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates, but it can influence their direction. If data shows that inflation is on an upward trajectory, the Fed is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate. In fact, the majority of analysts are now predicting that the Fed won’t touch rates at all for the rest of the year, though that forecast could change.
Without action from the Fed, we can expect that mortgage rates will probably stay elevated for as long as oil prices remain volatile.
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