Consumers are souring on the economy, dragging mortgage rates downward along with the collective mood.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 14 basis points to 6.65% in the week ending Feb. 27, according to rates provided to SS by Zillow. A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point. It’s the 30-year mortgage’s lowest rate since the middle of December.
What caused rates to drop
Consumers are losing confidence in the economy as the new administration unleashes its policies. Stock prices and bond yields are falling and taking mortgage rates with them.
“Economic jitters have pushed down mortgage rates, but it’s unclear for how long,” said Kara Ng, senior economist for Zillow Home Loans, in a news release.
The extent of those economic jitters can be found in February’s Consumer Confidence Index, which dropped seven points in February. It was the largest monthly slump in consumer confidence since August 2021, according to the Conference Board.
“Consumers became pessimistic about future business conditions and less optimistic about future income,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for the Conference Board, said in a news release. “Pessimism about future employment prospects worsened and reached a 10-month high.”
The board’s survey lets consumers write down their concerns. “There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019,” Guichard said. “Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
Consumer confidence has dropped three months in a row, beginning its slide in the month after the presidential election.
Increasing uncertainty
Investors seem to be worried, too. The S&P 500 stock index dived 188 points, or 3%, from Feb. 19 to Feb. 26. As stock prices fell, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by one-quarter of a percentage point. Mortgage rates have followed Treasury yields downward since mid-February.
But consumers’ and investors’ feelings seem to conflict with economists’ opinions.
“Incoming economic data since our last forecast continue to show that the economy entered 2025 on firm footing,” Fannie Mae wrote in its February economic forecast. The mortgage securitizer revised its inflation and mortgage rate forecasts upward in a sign of optimism.
In the minutes from its recent monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve noted that the economy grew robustly in the final three months of 2024, “led by continued strength in consumer spending.”
Still, the Fed noted that “the current high degree of uncertainty” means policymakers need to be careful before raising or lowering short-term interest rates.
The takeaway for home buyers? You should abide by your own timetables in this time of unpredictability. Don’t rush in the belief that rates are about to climb, and don’t delay in the belief that rates will fall in a few months. You just don’t know what will happen, so buy when owning a home fits your life circumstances.