Well that didn’t take long…
We’re only 20 days into the New Year and mortgage rates have already completed a nice little round trip.
Less than two weeks ago, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.21% before the Trump admin unveiled a new MBS buying proposal to lower mortgage rates.
Rates duly responded, briefly falling just below 6%, and have now risen back to exactly those same levels thanks to fears of a new trade war over Trump’s demand for Greenland.
Adding to the mess is surging Japanese bond yields, which can push ours higher in the process.
The 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Is Back to 6.21%
In a rather interesting turn of events, the 30-year fixed is literally right back to where it was prior to the big $200B MBS buying news.
Per Mortgage News Daily, the 30-year fixed averaged 6.21% today, which was the same exact seen on January 8th, the day before we got the MBS news.
So we’ve come full circle and erased all the gains from that MBS buying program that were meant to tighten mortgage spreads relative to bond yields.
Even if the spreads stay tight, we now have to contend with higher bond yields thanks to the threat of a new global trade war.
I wrote about the Greenland-related tariffs and mortgage rates yesterday, and lo and behold, we got the big rate spike higher today.
And it was even worse than I imagined, with all those nice recent gains wiped out overnight.
Instead of a quote in the high 5s, most borrowers are probably being pushed back into the 6s instead.
Remember, mortgage rates can change daily, and sometimes the change can be pretty sizable.
Just as they plummeted to 5.99% before a midday reprice when the MBS news was announced, they rose by a similar amount today.
Making matters worse is there’s also concern about rising bond yields in Japan, which can affect bonds in other countries including the United States.
In short, if Japanese bond yields rise and therefore become more attractive to investors, they may ditch U.S. Treasuries in favor of them.
This could be exacerbated if there’s a “sell America” trade where we continually turn off other countries with tariff threats and aggression.
Less demand for U.S. bonds means our yields must rise to become more attractive to investors, which translates to higher interest rates on everything else, including 30-year fixed mortgages.
Mortgage Rates Don’t Happen in a Bubble
I’ve been saying since the MBS news that mortgage rates don’t exist in a vacuum. Or a bubble. Or anything else.
They are interconnected to the wider economy and what happens there can greatly affect rates.
So while the initial reaction to buy mortgage-backed securities was cheered by mortgage loan officers, mortgage brokers, and real estate agents, there are bigger drivers at play.
Sure, the MBS buying helps, but if you go and start another trade war and renew inflation concerns, it might not matter much in the grand scheme.
And that’s exactly what we’re seeing. If the administration truly wants to deliver lower mortgage rates, they need to be mindful of this.
You can’t say you want to lower mortgage rates, then push policies that lead to higher bond yields and more government debt.
There needs to be policy that aligns with that mission, i.e. getting inflation and government debt lower so yields (and mortgage rates) can follow.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.