It was another bad day for mortgage rates as the reality of the war sets in.
While our fears were assuaged yesterday that oil and gas tankers would receive safe passage via the Strait of Hormuz, experts quickly debunked the idea.
In short, while President Trump provided assurances and said the Navy would provide cover if needed, ships may still choose to stay put for larger safety concerns.
That led to a bump in bond yields, with the 10-year reaching its highest point since early February (~4.14%). It was sub-4% last week…
The 30-year fixed also rose to its highest point in about a month as oil prices climbed above $80 for the first time in over a year.
The takeaway here is this war or whatever you want to call it might not be resolved as quickly as they’re saying. And that could be a drag on the economy.
Mortgage Rates Suffer a Setback Thanks to Inflation Fears Fueled by Rising Oil Prices
It appears the move back toward recent lows may have been short-lived as the 30-year fixed climbed back to its recent highs today.
This according to Mortgage News Daily, which pegged the 30-year fixed at 6.13%, up from 6.07% yesterday.
That actually matches the same rate seen Monday, but is still well above the 5.99% average we saw Friday before the Iranian situation emerged.
Typically, you get a flight to safety when geopolitical events take place. This means investors flee risk assets like stocks and buy bonds, which are known as a safe haven.
We’ve yet to see that happen, which is seemingly peculiar but might speak to the unprecedented nature of this conflict.
Iran is a worthy adversary and one that likely will not back down, evidenced by its many attacks stretching as far as “Europe” since it was attacked.
That reality, along with the fact that the nearby Persian Gulf is a key thoroughfare for energy shipping tells you why.
Inflation erodes the value of bonds and if it’s expected to rise due to higher oil prices, there will be upward pressure on interest rates.
That’s what we’ve seen thus far and while that could change over time, the initial reaction is higher bond yields and higher mortgage rates. Oh, and a tanking stock market…
Expect Volatile Mortgage Rates Until This Is Resolved
The big question to ask is how long this fight will go on. Will this be a prolonged conflict or shorter than expected?
Will it be resolved in the 4-5 weeks that President Trump has claimed, or will it go on for months or even longer?
I think either way it’s safe to say it’s going to extend for much of the spring home buying season, which means mortgage rates will be more volatile than usual, all else equal.
Expect bigger swings up and down than usual at a critical time for the housing market, which has struggled mightily these past few years.
This could be the unexpected event that dampens home sales for yet another year, with existing sales still moving at a snail’s pace not seen in 30 years.
Consumer Confidence Is at Stake Even If Costs Are Similar
There’s also the intangible effects of this conflict, which might give some home buyers pause to make the leap from renting.
If affordability is already strained and uncertainty heightened, more prospective buyers may decide just to wait it out.
The same goes for someone looking at their stock portfolio and thinking they’re not as rich as they thought. And perhaps aren’t in a position to buy a home.
The silver lining is despite this all happening, mortgage rates remain near the lowest levels since 2022.
They’re only up an .125% or so relative to recent lows, which is negligible monthly-payment wise.
It would arguably have been a lot worse if the 30-year fixed was still hovering around 7% or higher.
As such, some might brush off the news and the unknowns and be grateful they can still snag a rate in the low 6s or even high 5s.
Read on: Do mortgage rates go up or down during recessions?
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.