Tariffs, war send tomato prices soaring

A key ingredient for pizza, BLTs, springtime salads and other dishes has gotten a lot pricier of late.

Prices for fresh tomatoes have soared in recent months, largely on the back of tariffs, higher energy costs triggered by the Iran war, and weather-related supply shocks, according to agricultural economists.

The average retail price of field-grown tomatoes jumped to about $2.26 per pound in March, the highest level in more than eight years, according to data tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Consumers saw prices for fresh tomatoes spike about 15% in the month of March alone, following a 6% increase in February, according to the consumer price index, an inflation barometer.

The monthly inflation rate for tomatoes in March was the largest for any consumer good or service, outside of energy commodities like gasoline and fuel oil, which have risen sharply due to an oil supply shock tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Overall, fresh tomato prices are up 23% over the past year, according to CPI data.

Relief doesn’t seem to be coming anytime soon, economists said.

“I do expect there’s more pain on the horizon for tomato prices,” said Ricky Volpe, a professor of agribusiness at California Polytechnic State University and an expert in food retail and supply chain management.

Tariffs levied on imports of Mexican tomatoes appear to be the primary factor underpinning the recent runup in price, said Andrew Muhammad, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at the University of Tennessee.

Tomatoes are among the most commonly consumed vegetables by Americans, second only to potatoes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Botanically, tomatoes are fruits, but in data sources such as the CPI, they are categorized as “fresh vegetables.”

The U.S. imports the bulk of the tomatoes that consumers eat, Muhammad said.

When examining imports of fresh produce from foreign countries, tomatoes often rank first or second, behind avocados, according to a 2025 article authored by Muhammad and Luis Ribera, an agricultural economist at Texas A&M University.

The U.S. imports about 70% of its tomato supply — and Mexico accounts for about 90% of U.S. imports of fresh tomatoes, Muhammad said.

However, the Trump administration levied tariffs of about 17% on fresh tomatoes from Mexico starting in July.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said at the time that the import taxes were necessary to protect U.S. farmers from “unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes.”

Such tariffs largely impact tomatoes bought in a supermarket’s fresh produce section, rather than those that are canned or processed for tomato sauce or paste, for example, economists said.

While the White House has exempted many agricultural products from tariffs, tomatoes are among the few major specialty crops imported from Mexico that haven’t received an exemption, Volpe said.

And, since Mexico is such a major supplier, the U.S. can’t readily substitute for tomatoes from other nations or from U.S. domestic supply, Volpe said.

The result: Tariffs are now raising prices at the store for U.S. consumers, economists said.

Consumers have been spared from big price hikes until recently, likely because store owners have tried to eat the cost of tariffs instead of passing them on — but they can only do that for so long, Volpe said.

Another compounding effect: It’s peak production season in Mexico right now, he said.

Florida is the largest domestic supplier of fresh tomatoes, followed by California, Muhammad said.

But Florida crops were hit by multiple winter freezes and storms from December 2025 to January 2026, which “significantly” reduced supply during the “critical spring transition window,” David Branch, sector manager of the Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, wrote in an e-mail.

In most of the U.S., it’s only possible to harvest field-grown tomatoes in the warmest months of the year, according to Muhammad and Ribera.

Meanwhile, Mexico supplies more fresh tomatoes to the U.S. in the winter and spring, Branch said. But Mexico’s crop also suffered from weather and disease issues that kept tomato yields below normal, he wrote.

Unlike fresh tomato production, the U.S. runs a trade surplus when it comes to processed tomatoes like those used for tomato paste and sauce, and canned or stewed tomatoes, according to Muhammad and Ribera. California is the leader in this category, they wrote.

While somewhat insulated from tariffs on fresh tomatoes, processed tomatoes are being impacted by tariffs on metals like steel and aluminum, Volpe said.

Prices for canned fruits and vegetables are up about 6% in March from a year earlier, according to CPI data.

“It’s become significantly more expensive to can and process and store fruits and vegetables,” Volpe said.

The Iran war has led to a surge in energy prices, in turn putting upward pressure on prices for tomatoes and other fruits and vegetables that incur significant transport costs, economists said.

Brent crude, a global oil benchmark, is about $95 per barrel as of Tuesday afternoon, up from roughly $70 before the Middle East conflict.

In turn, prices for oil derivatives like the diesel fuel used to ship produce to market have increased, translating to higher costs for consumers, especially since fresh tomatoes are “highly perishable and truck‑intensive,” Branch wrote.

Energy costs are generally among the most important factors behind variation in food prices, Volpe said.

However, it typically takes at least a month or two for energy prices to filter through to store shelves — meaning prices for tomatoes and other produce are set to increase further, he said.

“I think that is still to come,” Volpe said. “I think there are going to be more fireworks in next month’s CPI.”

Price relief for tomatoes is expected to come gradually rather than immediately, Branch wrote.

Easing is likely for round tomatoes first, with cherry and grape tomatoes taking a bit longer due to the various growing seasons for each, he wrote.