You might be wondering why mortgage rates remain fairly low despite tensions in the Middle East remaining quite high.
While there was a glimmer of hope a few days ago when Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire and an Iranian official declared the Strait of Hormuz open, it appeared to be short-lived.
It turned out the Strait wasn’t open and then U.S. forces fired upon an Iranian vessel and took custody of it.
Meanwhile, a second round of negotiations involving Vice President J.D. Vance are apparently not being attended by the Iranians.
And Trump is back to making big threats again on social media. So you wonder why bond yields and mortgage rates aren’t rising once more.
Mortgage Rates Are Holding Up Remarkably Well Despite Near-$100 Oil
Historically, oil prices and mortgage rates are positively correlated, in that if one goes up, so does the other.
In short, when energy costs rise, inflation expectations rise and bond traders (and MBS investors) demand a higher yield aka interest rate.
Yes, mortgage rates are up since oil went up in price, but not by a whole lot.
And over the past three weeks and change, 10-year bond yields have drifted lower, falling from around 4.50% to 4.25% today.
They had been just below 4% before the war in Iran broke out, but are now well off their recent highs.
The rationale is that the war is baked into bond yields now, and that tensions have eased from their absolute heights.
But when you see all the flip-flopping, you start to wonder if yields are high enough to compensate.
While there was some promise of a peace deal last week, we are back to things being very tenuous again.
Trump took to his Truth Social account yesterday, saying if Iran doesn’t make a deal, “the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!”
It’s more of the same threats made before the peace talks and feels like we are ratcheting back up to the tensest levels.
At the same time, Iran has said it’s not even going to attend the next round of talks in Islamabad.
And the existing ceasefire between the two countries ends on Wednesday night…
None of this exactly exudes confidence that the worst is behind us, or that a deal is imminent.
Instead, it sounds like things could get worse before they get better.
But it appears mortgage rates are staying lower based on optimism and hope. That things will get better and a deal will be reached. It sure doesn’t sound promising though.
Labor Market Matters More Than War-Related Inflation
If it’s not that, then it’s because labor is worse than we think, and jobs and unemployment are going to continue to deteriorate.
The Fed seems to be more concerned about the labor market and the lack of job creation, and that can trump any uptick in inflation related to oil prices.
Back in mid-March, Fed chair Jerome Powell said, “Effectively, there’s zero net job creation in the private sector.”
Obviously that’s a problem, and when you throw in the threat of AI taking existing jobs on top of that, it’s very bleak.
That could lead to more accommodative action from the Fed like rate cuts and keep bond yields down in the process.
And perhaps that, coupled with historical precedent that geopolitical issues don’t drag out as long as expected, may explain why mortgage rates aren’t even higher today.
At last glance, they’re only about .25% to .375% above the pre-war levels, which is remarkably decent given oil prices remain near $100 a barrel.
You can see how much that affects your payment and total interest via my mortgage rate calculator.
My quick take is be grateful and don’t be at all surprised if they rise again in the months of May and June.
Read on: Mortgage rates are lowest in the month of February historically.
Before creating this site, I worked as an account executive for a wholesale mortgage lender in Los Angeles. My hands-on experience in the early 2000s inspired me to begin writing about mortgages 19 years ago to help prospective (and existing) home buyers better navigate the home loan process. Follow me on X for hot takes.