While markets largely expect the central bank to hold its policy rate steady on Wednesday, some economists see enough downside pressure to justify a quarter-point rate cut.
Fresh inflation and housing data early in the week could tip the balance—or reinforce the Bank’s cautious wait-and-see stance.
Tuesday
March inflation expected to tick higher
Statistics Canada will release March’s consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday. February’s reading came in at 2.6%, just above expectations. Markets are expecting a further slowdown, and any downside surprise could reinforce the case for rate cuts as early as June. The inflation release will land just a day before the Bank of Canada’s policy decision.
The big question is whether the Bank’s preferred core measures show any sign of easing after nearly a year of persistent pressure.
Home sales data to test spring momentum
On Tuesday, the Canadian Real Estate Association will release national home sales data for March.
February saw a 10.4% year-over-year decline in sales, while the average home price rose 3.3%. March’s figures will show whether activity remained subdued heading into the spring market, or if buyers began returning amid growing expectations for rate cuts.
Housing starts expected to rebound
Housing starts for March are also due Tuesday. Economists expect a rise to 241,400 annualized units, up from 229,000 in February. That would mark the first monthly gain since December.
Wednesday
Bank of Canada likely to hold, but with a dovish lean
The Bank of Canada announces its latest rate decision on Wednesday. Markets are pricing in roughly 40% change of no change, with the overnight target rate remaining at 2.75%.
Scotiabank calls it a “nervous hold,” noting strong cases on both sides. The hold argument rests on persistent core inflation, rising business input costs, and tariff-related price pressures.
But recent signs of weakening growth—including falling commodity prices, soft confidence data, and job losses—are fuelling expectations for a June cut. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report and Governor Macklem’s press conference will be closely parsed for any shift in tone.
Thursday
Election debates add to the noise
Two federal leaders’ debates are also scheduled this week—one in French on Wednesday, one in English on Thursday.
With polling averages showing the Liberals firmly in the lead, Scotiabank says it’s “Carney’s to lose.”
Friday
Markets close for Good Friday
Markets will be closed Friday, but by week’s end, mortgage professionals and market watchers will have a much clearer picture of whether inflation is cooling fast enough—and whether the Bank of Canada is ready to move.
Week of April 14, 2025
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Last modified: April 13, 2025